ROI and Sizing Methodology

Primary sources

SBIR Phase I and Phase II award values are published by SBIR.gov (the official database). Agency guidelines set soft caps: Phase I is typically $275,000-$375,000 (varies by agency), Phase II is $750,000-$2,000,000. DoD agencies have published higher caps for certain topics — we use agency-published guidelines as defaults, with user override for specific solicitations.

State grant programs are sourced from state economic development agency websites. We maintain a catalog of state SBIR supplemental programs (which match or double federal awards) and state-specific innovation grants. These change frequently — our catalog is reviewed quarterly.

Non-dilutive capital ROI model

Grant ROI is computed as: (grant award value + equity value of retained dilution) / (application cost + opportunity cost). Application cost is estimated at 80-200 hours of technical writing plus direct costs (consultants, formatting). Equity value of retained dilution uses the user-entered current or target valuation to compute the dilution avoided versus raising the same amount as equity.

For a $1.5M Phase II grant at a $10M pre-money valuation, the dilution avoided is approximately 13% of the company — valued at $1.3M at current valuation or potentially multiples of that at exit. This is the 'shadow ROI' most grant ROI calculators ignore.

State supplement stacking

Many states offer SBIR matching grants that stack on top of federal awards. California, Massachusetts, New York, and Illinois all have published programs. We compute the stacked award as federal + state supplement and show the combined non-dilutive capital package.

Limitations

Application success rate is uncertain — we use base rates from SBIR.gov aggregate data (Phase I acceptance ~20-25%, varies by agency and year). Stacking federal and state grants requires agency approval in some cases. State programs change year to year — verify program status before planning.

Update protocol

This category is reviewed quarterly. Immediate updates are triggered by changes to the primary source documents listed in the citations above — rate table revisions, new agency guidance, or regulatory amendments.

Error reports go to info@bedrockatools.com. Corrections are published on our corrections page.